What now?

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Now that Brown has won, what are the democrats going do? That is unclear right now. According to the Wall Street Journal...

Party members clashed openly over what to do next. Sen. Max Baucus, a top Senate Democrat, appeared to throw cold water on a bill that would focus only on stiffer insurance regulations. Rep. Charles Rangel, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, scotched another idea, a complicated parliamentary maneuver to usher a bill quickly to the president's desk.

In an interview with ABC News, President Obama said he would be open to scaling back the legislation in order to salvage it. "I would advise that we try to move quickly to coalesce around those elements in the package that people agree on," Mr. Obama said. White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer said later the president would prefer Congress to pass the comprehensive package, and hasn't given up on that option.

Read the full story here.
 

What the MA vote means

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ScottBrown.jpgThe results of yesterday's vote in Massachusetts have given Republicans 41 seats in the senate. This is a critical number because 41 votes allows them to block a new bill. It was expected that the health reform bill would need to be edited and passed through the senate again, since there were several issues that face opposition within the Democratic voters. 
 
To compensate for this opposition, there is a proposal that the House would then pass a second measure making changes to the Senate bill. That measure could then pass through the upper chamber at a later date under special budgetary rules known as reconciliation, which allow legislation to pass with a simple majority.

Since Democrats and allied independents still control 59 seats, strategists believe it would be relatively easy to pass a second measure that would contain compromises reached between Senate and House negotiators, such as a limit on the tax imposed on high-cost insurance plans.
 
But Democratic lawmakers were split Tuesday evening over the prospect of passing the Senate bill and hoping for a later fix.

Read the full story here, on The Hill.
 
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Today is the Massachusetts election that's being watched around the country. Politico summarizes the pressure being felt by the democrats...

Ever since health care reform flamed out in the 1990s, Democrats thought lots of things might derail their longtime dream this time around. Losing a Senate seat in liberal Massachusetts was not on the list.

But that is the harsh reality sinking in among Democrats -- that a Republican victory could spell the end of health reform because there is no good option to rescue the plan from this latest brush with political death.

Publicly, the White House and top Democrats held firm to their stance that health care reform will pass this year. And Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Monday that Democrats will need to figure out a way to proceed if Republican Scott Brown wins, "but that doesn't mean we won't have a health care bill."

"Let's remove all doubt that we will have health care one way or another," Pelosi told reporters in San Francisco.

But privately, Democrats are getting cold feet about pushing ahead full bore on health care. Moderate Democrats who have long been skeptical of the administration's focus on the issue could begin to peel away in the face of a convincing loss for Democrat Martha Coakley, dealing a fatal blow to legislation that had no room for error in either chamber. 

Read the full story here.
 
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Since 2006, when Mitt Romney required all residents to purchase health insurance, Massachusetts has been a state to watch in health care reform. Scott Brown is running in Massachusetts' special election to fill Tedd Kennedy's open seat

As the underdog GOP nominee in one of the most Democratic states in the nation, the state senator's message has been simple: If he upsets Democratic state Attorney General Martha Coakley in the Jan. 19 election to fill the seat once held by the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, he will provide the critical vote to halt the Democrats' health care bill once the final version is negotiated.

"If you feel that Washington and the health care bill that they're proposing is systemic of the problems in Washington and the failure to understand average people anymore, then you vote for me because as the 41st senator I can stop a lot of this stuff in its tracks," Brown told POLITICO. "I can actually force them to go back to the drawing board."

Read Politico's coverage here.
 
change.jpgKaiser Health did a recap today of several news agencies and their takes on what might change in the short term with the new health care reform bill. 

McClatchy examines benefits that "would take effect quickly and should produce a noticeable impact on consumers, according to many independent analysts and Democrats." The House and Senate bills "would bar lifetime limits on coverage, starting six months after the measure is enacted. They also would expand community health centers, where consumers could go for care, and would require health plans to allow young people, up to age 26 in the Senate bill and 27 in the House bill, to stay on their parents' policies. Age requirements now vary by state. Both bills provide immediate aid for the uninsured. The Senate bill includes $5 billion to help finance a temporary program that would provide coverage to uninsured people with pre-existing conditions, effective 90 days after the bill is signed" (Lightman, 1/5)

CNN: "Arguments over the massive overhaul of the health care system -- which congressional Democrats hope to pass by next month -- are expected to keep shaking up the country long after the vote." David Gergen, who worked in the Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Clinton administrations, explains that "unlike other major legislation which has passed with more bipartisan support, health care is going to remain a political football, and people are going to have a sense that it is not fully settled yet for a while" (Keck, 1/5). 

Read Kaiser Health's full story here.
 
old tv.jpgIn a letter dated December 30th, and released today, C-SPAN asked to broadcast the health care negotions between the 2 houses. 

The head of cable network C-SPAN, which shows government proceedings, wrote a letter to Ms. Pelosi and other congressional leaders saying they should allow cameras at the discussions. That echoed a point Republicans have often made during the health-care debate, charging that Democrats were making too many decisions in private discussions...

In a letter to congressional leaders, C-SPAN Chief Executive Brian Lamb urged both chambers to allow C-SPAN cameras inside the talks, noting that the legislation "will affect the lives of every single American." 

Read the full story, and discussion of the negotiations from the Wall Street Journal, here in Democrats Circle the Wagon as Health Talks Restart
 
dilbert.jpgAs both houses get ready to come back from their breaks, they are getting ready for negotiations where they will take their two bills and merge them into one. The Washington Post has a table comparing the bills in terms of their costs, impacts to various parties, and benefit packages. 
There's also an interesting break down of each representative, their vote on the bills, the percentage of uninsured people in their states, and the amount of contributions they've received from the health care industry. Here's the Senate breakdown, and here's the House of Representatives' breakdown. 
 

Merry Christmas or Bah Humbug

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santa.jpgOn Christmas Eve, the health care reform bill passed by a vote of 60 - 39. Coverage from The Hill is here. Next up - the House and Senate negotiators will work in January to merge the 2 versions of the bill. Coverage from the Wall Street Journal, Senate, House to Haggle Over Differences is here

The most highly debated issue still pending, is that of abortion. Coverage of the abortion issue from Time is here. The GOP is pushing, and many are discussing, the issue of whether its even legal for the federal government to require people to have health insurance. Chicago Sun Times coverage is here

The ongoing political effects of the bill and debate are being discussed, in terms of how this will affect party relations and strategy. scrooge.jpgPolitico's coverage, Parties Risk It All on Health Care Reform is here

Specifically targeting consumers, Kaiser Health News has published a guide, The House, Senate and You: A New Guide to Health Care Reform, which can be found here

 
filibuster over.jpgA 60-39 vote has just ended the Republican's filibuster. The filibuster was the last stop for the health care reform bill before it's voted on. Recent procedural decisions - such as starting the debate and ending the filibuster - have required 60 votes, but passing the bill requires a simple majority. The final vote is scheduled for tomorrow, Christmas Eve day, at 7am. It has been 114 years since a vote was held on Christmas Eve. 

"Away from Capitol Hill, special deals on Medicaid obtained by some Democrats - notably Ben Nelson of Nebraska, who provided the crucial 60th vote - continued to provoke grumbling. Under the Senate bill the federal government will pay the entire cost of an expansion of Medicaid in Nebraska, unlike other states, which will have to start picking up a portion of the tab themselves after several years."

You can read the coverage from the Associated Press here.
 
Despite a dramatic few weeks, democrats have advanced their healthcare bill with a clean party-line vote of 60-40. The American Hospital Association has endorsed the bill, but the AMA has yet to officially declare their support for this version. Politico reports... 

The Democratic Party's decades-long push to remake the U.S. health care system cleared a major hurdle early Monday morning, with the Senate voting to advance a massive $871 billion bill to extend coverage to nearly all Americans and tighten regulations on private insurers...

In the coming negotiations, the House will almost certainly be forced to give up the government-run insurance plan that is part of its bill. The idea failed in the upper chamber after centrists including Connecticut independent Joseph Lieberman drew a line in the sand against it.

The final bill is also likely to embrace a version of the Senate's proposed tax on high-value insurance plans, rather than add a surtax on the wealthy, as the House wanted.

Read Politico's coverage here, and the Wall Street Journal article here.
 
From Kaiser Health... xmas.jpg

 

Hurdles for democrats

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Over the last few days, Democrats have faced more challenges in getting the health care bill passed. Politico says:
 
Democrats must work out compromises on long-standing problems like the public option and abortion while dealing with more recent intraparty spats, like whether to allow consumers to buy Food and Drug Administration-approved drugs from other countries, an issue that stalled last week and remains stuck on the Senate floor...

...Most insiders agree that Democrats have until Thursday to work out their differences if they want to pass a bill by Dec. 23. It will take at least five or six days after Democrats move to end debate before they can vote on the bill. Democrats expect to begin the endgame early this week and still sound optimistic that they can get it done.

Also an issue is that Senator Lieberman won't vote for the bill with the Medicare expansion included. The NY Times coverage is here and the Wall Street Journal coverage is here.
 
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What do farming and medicine have in common?  In the latest edition of The New Yorker, Dr. Atul Gawande explores the parallels between agricultural cost control pilots in the early 1900s and the potential to use health care control pilots to control health care costs nearly 100 years later.  Just like the agricultural crisis in the early 20th century,  Dr. Gawande that the current health care cost crisis also monopolizes a large percentages of the American economy, had "unmanageably costly sectors," and seems intractably difficult to remedy.    

 

In the absence of a sweeping solution to costs, the current health overhaul legislation pursues a piecemeal approach, cobbling together lots of pilot projects to see what works. Similarly, an  agricultural cost crisis in the early 1900s (when more than 40 percent of family income went toward food) eventually produced a medley of U.S. Department of Agriculture-run pilots, spurring Gawande's optimism that the similar "hodgepodge" of proposed pilots in the proposed health care legislation could have similar results.  Farmers quickly learned that following the pilot programs offered a solution to their cost problems.  For example, Texas farmers who followed a pilot program to improve soil quality and plant yield, quickly earned an additional $700 in the first year of the program and quickly expanded the program  to reap similar benefits in future years. 

 

Although Gawande doesn't address this in his article, we have previously reported in this blog that federal health care pilot programs, despite successful results, do not have a good history of being widely adopted. 

 

To read the entire article in The New Yorker, click here and for our previous blog post on health care pilots, click here

 
confused.jpgFor months, the idea of a public option--a government-run health insurance program--has taken center stage in the debate over health care reform.  But a recent poll by 60 Minutes and Vanity Fair finds that two-thirds of respondents said they couldn't explain the concept. The poll asked people whether they could "confidently explain what exactly the public option is to someone who didn't know."   Sixty-six percent of respondents said no.  The poll prompted Ezra Klein to comment in the Washington Post, "So far as health-care reform goes, the public option is fairly simple, and undeniably prominent. Imagine how many could explain the exchanges, or the mandate, or the benefit package ..."

 

To see the 60 Minutes/Vanity fair poll results, click here.  To read Ezra Klein's post on the poll, click here

 

Debate on Senate health care reform bill continue this week, with the on again off again public option the subject of intense behind the scene negotiations.  Politico reports that a potential deal took shape on Monday that would put the public option on the chopping block in exchange for big expansions of Medicare and Medicaid.   The public option may still survive, but in a much weaker form:

[N]egotiators [are] still struggling to craft a compromise that could satisfy moderates worried about the too-heavy hand of government -- and liberals who would be giving up on their cherished goal of a federal health insurance safety net.

After five days of intensive talks among five moderates and five liberals, the outlines of a compromise aimed at appeasing both ends of the Democratic political spectrum were emerging: a plan designed to expand insurance coverage without creating a new government-run program.


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